Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Expect More Bleeding

Today's volatility rise of 13% is clearly the start of another wave up which will soon make it retest last week's resistance levels. For the equity markets this is bad news and the fact of the matter is that the bottom is nowhere in sight. We are very likely to see the lowest lows from last week been penetrated. To put try to put the recent fall in perspective, the Dow could easily fall another 500 points (currently it stands at 10,024) while volatility might just be retesting the highest highs...

In a news article today, the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd cut its forecast for the euro to $1.16 by the fourth quarter, which is inline with our $1.15 forecast we gave two weeks ago and which you can read here. Given the timing of today's forecast by the Bank of Tokyo, they are implicitly assuming that the stock market correction is real and will last throughout this summer and well into the fall.

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