We concluded Thursday´s post on a positive note, the last paragraph read:
"So again, pretty bullish considering the scenario as it stands today, but conditions could change pretty rapidly like for instance the E-mini reaching the upper 940 level prior to the market open at 9.30am EST and then digesting the unemployment rate as bad which could be the perfect excuse for a very strong pullback...."
Right after the horrendous unemployment rate was out, in fact, the worst in the last 26 years, the E-mini which was sitting at the 945 level we forecasted on that same post, within minutes shot up to 957, setting that day´s intraday high before collapsing almost 20 points in less than hour and coinciding with the opening bell. The markets ended the day slightly to the downside.
Some things to note on Fiday´s volatile trading day. First off, the news media were trying really hard to put a positive spin to the employment figure and keeping with the Obama team´s attempt to make the public believe the US is out of the woods. They argued that the layoffs were less than on previous months and pointing toward a recovery, yet the unemployment rate shot to 9.4% when 9.2% was the consensus. 9.4% s the highest rate in the last 26 years.
At least some well informed news commentators were right to point out to a much broader means of measuring unemployment, the U-6 rate which had shot up to 16.4%. Its clear the markets didn´t buy all the artificial positive spin by the news media, so that explains why we had such a "wishy-washy" market close. If I were bullish on the markets and judging by, the markets reaction on Friday I would head straight to the "bunker" as Art Cashin, head of floor operations at UBS at the NYSE,re said last Friday when asked about how the markets looked to him minutes before the employment figures were released.
The real key here is on volatility which has found real good support levels as we have been pointing out all along.
Right now its 19:33 EST on a Sunday and the Globlex session has opened down about 0.5% on both the Dow and the S&P500 and unless something mystical occurs like the 934.5 level holding, the markets could retrace badly tomorrow, after all we have had about 14 straight weeks of gains and isn´t it time for the markets to take a breather. Oh, and about all the hype regarding the 200 day MA, its absolute nonsense especially given the current macroeconomic picture. At least a 5% retracement is due and would be very healthy for markets overall.
Sunday, June 7, 2009
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